Yogi Berra – the baseball-playing philosopher - had it right: “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”.
It turns out that longevity predictions are harder than hitting home runs. History reveals a lousy record of serial underestimation by experts, at least when you study the country level expectations. When you look at the classic Vaupel and Oeppen chart (updated in a recent Club Vita Top Charts article) you notice that simply putting a ruler through the past would have been more accurate than the complex models that underpinned the estimates.
Introducing our Mega Trends
We invited the multi-talented Club Vita team to have a stab at some longevity futurology.
The challenge? To share their personal thoughts on the trends that would define the world of longevity over the next decade. We encouraged freedom of expression: with the aim of introducing others to topics that they may not have considered. We see this multi-disciplinary approach as the first foundation in building more resilient long-term longevity predictions.
And how they rose to the challenge! I learned several new and surprising things. To pick out a few: thanks to Mark, I appreciated the interaction between longevity and climate change, Jenny challenged my presumptions with her beliefs that longevity risk will return to institutions from individuals and Jacklyn reminded me of the importance of nutrition.
I heartily commend all 13 blogs to you, and hope that you find something new too.
Lang may yer lums reek,
Douglas Anderson